位移边界对2D-FGM板热应力影响研究

考虑不同的位移边界条件,建立了常物性2D-FGM板研究模型,并采用有限元法,得到其冷却瞬态热应力场分布图形。位移边界条件对常物性2D-FGM平面区域冷却瞬态热应力分布影响颇大,在简支和一端固定情况下,2D-FGM板自由边界上的热应力σ_x=0;两端固定情况下,其左右两边界均形成上中下三个应力聚集,应力分布形状和数值都发生了巨大的变化;将四周均设置呈固定约束后,热应力数值增长幅度较两端固定情况时更为明显。此结果为该材料的设计、制备提供了准确的理论计算依据。     

高校辅导员视野中危机事件的防控预警工作探析

高校学生危机事件对高校保证学生安全与促进高校和谐与稳定有极大影响力。防空预警是消除和减轻高校各种重大突发危机事件最有效的手段，提出了高校辅导员应重点从思想政治教育、安全制度建设、完善信息系统、建立问题排查机制、制定危机应急预案等方面开展危机事件防控预警工作。     

Prosocial Behavior: Long‐term Trajectories and Psychosocial Outcomes

This study investigated developmental trajectories for prosocial behavior for a sample followed from the age of 10–18 and examined possible adjustment outcomes associated with membership in different trajectory groups. Participants were 136 boys and 148 girls, their teachers, and their parents (19.4 percent African‐American, 2.4 percent Asian, 51.9 percent Caucasian, 19.5 percent Hispanic, and 5.8 percent other). Teachers rated children's prosocial behavior yearly in grades 4–12. At the end of the 12th grade year, teachers, parents, and participants reported externalizing behaviors and participants reported internalizing symptoms, narcissism, and features of borderline personality disorder. Results suggested that prosocial behavior remained stable from middle childhood through late adolescence. Group‐based mixture modeling revealed three prosocial trajectory groups: low (18.7 percent), medium (52.8 percent), and high (29.6 percent). Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of externalizing behavior as compared with the low prosocial trajectory group, and for girls, lower levels of internalizing symptoms. Membership in the medium prosocial trajectory group also predicted being lower on externalizing behaviors. Membership in the high prosocial trajectory group predicted lower levels of borderline personality features for girls only.     

What are the Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Among Low‐income Youth in CapeTown?

Research in high‐income countries has identified an array of risk factors for youth antisocial behavior. However, in low‐ and middle‐income countries, despite higher prevalence of offending and antisocial behavior, there is a paucity of prospective, longitudinal evidence examining predictors. South Africa is a middle‐income country with high rates of violence and crime, and a unique social context, characterized by striking income and gender inequality, and increasing number of children orphaned by AIDS. We tested predictors of antisocial behavior at community, family, and individual levels over four years. One thousand and twenty five adolescents from poor, urban South African settlements were assessed in 2005 (50 percent female; M = 13.4 years) and followed up in 2009. The sample analyzed consisted of the 723 youth (71 percent) assessed at both time points. We employed sociodemographic questionnaires and standardized scales. Validity of our antisocial behavior measure was supported by cross‐sectional associations with well‐evidenced concomitants of youth antisocial behavior, including drug taking and truancy. Regression analysis indicated that male gender and experience of community violence, but not poverty or abuse, predicted antisocial behavior. Despite many South African youth experiencing abuse and poverty at the family level, our findings suggest that high levels of violence in communities may be a more important factor contributing to the development of antisocial behavior, particularly among males.     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Making fathers relevant: How practitioners include both parents in talk about parenting programmes

Parenting programmes are recommended as an effective means to support parents in promoting positive relationships with, and managing the behaviour of, their children. One barrier that impedes their successful implementation is that partners, especially fathers, are less frequently recruited by child welfare services. This article reports on a study that investigated how both parents were engaged with parenting services. Direct recordings were made of initial telephone conversations between six practitioners and 28 parents referred to those services and investigated for evidence of how the other parent was recruited. Conversation analysis was used to identify how participants introduced the possibility of both parents being included in the service, how these possibilities were negotiated, and what eventual agreements were made for both parents to be included in future arrangements. Implications for practice, training, and future research are considered.     

Professional blinders? The novel as an eye-opener in organizational analysis

ABSTRACT

Scholarly textbooks often follow a logic where suitable empirical cases are selected to illustrate the theoretical and analytical points that we as scholars want to make. But what would happen if we would do the opposite: build a textbook on a novel written by a novelist for such purpose and let the theories explain the actions and emotions of fictional characters? In this article, we share and reflect upon our experiences of co-authoring a textbook in organization theory together with a professional novelist. We argue that the novel can function as an eye-opener in organizational analysis, forcing us to look beyond more static and rationalistic perspectives on organizations as well as the stereotypes of such. We build and relate our experiences to the growing literature about using fiction in scholarly work and discuss the potential of such genre-bending work when we bring in flesh and blood into the analyses.     

确定含油气面积存在的问题及正确的方法

本文对传统的石油地质理论定义的含油气面积提出了异议，用倒转背斜油气藏、断层下盘油气藏和不整合面下油气藏的实例阐明在传统定义下确定含油气面积存在的问题，指出用这种方法确定的含油气面积小于实际面积。笔者将含油气面积定义为含油气体在水平面上的投影区域，并推荐了三种正确的确定方法、